Abstract: This note focuses on studying and forecasting the pattern of the Hellenic territorial waters violation incidents by Turkish vessels. Using the Weibull distribution as the one that best fits the historical pattern of such incidents ranging between 2009 and 2021, the paper argues that the activity of the Turkish vessels in the Aegean when violating the Hellenic territorial waters is strongly correlated with the corresponding Hellenic FIR violations in the area. The paper predicts that, for the next few years, the cases of the Hellenic territorial waters violation by Turkish vessels will exceed the figure of 200 on a monthly basis on average. One must bear in mind, however, that such a forecast will be affected by various geopolitical developments in the area, like the aftereffects of the Afghan crisis, the political and economic develoments in Turkey and the Turkish reactions to the pronounced presence of France at the expense of that of the US in the area, following the AUKUS pact.